Saturday, February 25, 2017

My 2017 Oscar Predictions

2017 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
The biggest night of the awards circuit that closes us out for the year is tomorrow. I have spent all week catching up on movies I needed to see. Even though I didn't review them for my site, I loved and adored both "Fences" and "Lion." Seriously, some really good movies there. Its been a whirlwind of a week for me, with wedding stuff and my fiance and I getting things done for our first house that will close at the end of March. Its been exciting and its been hectic and its been strenuous. But as always this time of year I can't wait for tomorrow night.

The Oscars are always kind a weird time for me as well. It seems like the movies I am most passionate about don't win the big awards. Or there are years where I feel strongly about a couple movies, and they just get shunned. In recent years, my favorite film of the year either doesn't win best picture or it gets shunned completely. The later happened this year. Don't get me wrong, I love "La La Land," I think its great. But "American Honey" transported me to a different realm entirely. I watch "La La Land" and I am in awe of how great it is. I watch "American Honey" and I get positively lost in it. That's why its my pick for the best film of the year, and I can't stand that it got shunned. I figured since "Spotlight" won Best Picture last year, that the Academy still had love for  the smaller, more indie films. Not this year though. I should have known better though. "La La Land" is all about Hollywood, acting and the arts. Of course the Academy was going to have sex with it. (Okay, sorry, bad analogy). I'm expecting some big things from "La La Land" tomorrow night, and I feel strongly it will come through.

Below, you will see all the nominees for each category. I will give my final prediction under "Who Will Win" then discuss what could win, what should win and what should have been nominated in each category. See below for my predictions!


WHO WILL WIN: "La La Land"
WHO COULD WIN: "Moonlight"
WHO SHOULD WIN: "La La Land"
WHY NO NOMINATION?: "American Honey"
=============================
Casey AffleckManchester by the Sea
Andrew GarfieldHacksaw Ridge
Ryan GoslingLa La Land
Viggo MortensenCaptain Fantastic

WHO WILL WIN: Denzel Washington
WHO COULD WIN: Casey Affleck
WHO SHOULD WIN: Denzel Washington
WHY NO NOMINATION?: Shia LaBeouf, "American Honey"
=============================
Ruth NeggaLoving
Natalie PortmanJackie
Emma StoneLa La Land
Meryl StreepFlorence Foster Jenkins

WHO WILL WIN: Emma Stone
WHO COULD WIN: Natalie Portman
WHO SHOULD WIN: Emma Stone
WHY NO NOMINATION?: Sasha Lane, "American Honey"
=============================
Mahershala AliMoonlight
Jeff BridgesHell or High Water
Lucas HedgesManchester by the Sea
Dev PatelLion
Michael ShannonNocturnal Animals

WHO WILL WIN: Mahershala Ali
WHO COULD WIN: Dev Patel
WHO SHOULD WIN: Michael Shannon (lots of people think Hedges should win, but Shannon was excellent. This is a COMPETATIVE year for this category.)
WHY NO NOMINATION?: Aaron Taylor-Johnson, "Nocturnal Animals"
=============================
Viola DavisFences
Naomie HarrisMoonlight
Octavia SpencerHidden Figures
Michelle WilliamsManchester by the Sea

WHO WILL WIN: Viola Davis
WHO COULD WIN: Octavia Spencer
WHO SHOULD WIN: Viola Davis
WHY NO NOMINATION?: Janelle Monae, "Moonlight"
=============================

WHO WILL WIN: "Zootopia"
WHO COULD WIN: "Kubo And The Two Strings"
WHO SHOULD WIN: "Kubo And The Two Strings"
WHY NO NOMINATION?: "Sausage Party"
=============================
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

WHO WILL WIN: "La La Land"
WHO COULD WIN: "Arrival"
WHO SHOULD WIN: "La La Land"
WHY NO NOMINATION?: "The Witch" seriously, gorgeous movie.
=============================
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

WHO WILL WIN: "Jackie"
WHO COULD WIN: "La La Land"
WHO SHOULD WIN: "Jackie"
WHY NO NOMINATION?: "Cafe Society"
=============================
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

WHO WILL WIN: "La La Land"
WHO COULD WIN: "Moonlight"
WHO SHOULD WIN: "La La Land" or "Moonlight"
WHY NO NOMINATION?: "Hell Or High Water"
=============================
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th

WHO WILL WIN: "O.J.: Made In America"
WHO COULD WIN: "I Am Not Your Negro"
WHO SHOULD WIN: "13TH"
WHY NO NOMINATION?: "Weiner"
=============================
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe’s Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets

Since "Extremis" is the only documentary short I saw, and since I liked that one so much, I am rooting for "Extremis." I don't know enough of this category to make good predictions.
=============================
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

WHO WILL WIN: "La La Land"
WHO COULD WIN: "Hacksaw Ridge"
WHO SHOULD WIN: "La La Land" or "Hell or High Water"
WHY NO NOMINATION?: "Manchester By The Sea"
=============================
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann

WHO WILL WIN: "Toni Erdmann"
WHO COULD WIN: "The Salesman"
WHO SHOULD WIN: N/A
WHY NO NOMINATION?: "The Handmaiden" That was the see all-be all foreign language film of last year.
=============================
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

WHO COULD WIN: "Star Trek Beyond"
WHO COULD WIN: "A Man Called Ove"
WHO SHOULD WIN: "Star Trek Beyond" (no way The Academy will give it to "Suicide Squad")
WHY NO NOMINATION?: umm.. "Rogue One," "Fantastic Beasts," "Jackie," "Doctor Strange," even "Hacksaw Ridge." Weird year for this category.
=============================
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

WHO WILL WIN: "La La Land"
WHO COULD WIN: "Moonlight"
WHO SHOULD WIN: "La La Land"
WHY NO NOMINATION?: "The BFG"
=============================
Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
Music and Lyric by Justin Timberlake, Max Martin and Karl Johan Schuster
"City Of Stars" from La La Land
Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
"The Empty Chair" from Jim: The James Foley Story
Music and Lyric by J. Ralph and Sting
"How Far I’ll Go" from Moana
Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda

WHO WILL WIN: "City of Stars"
WHO COULD WIN: "Can't Stop The Feeling!"
WHO SHOULD WIN: "City of Stars"
WHY NO NOMINATION?: LITERALLY ANY SONG FROM "SING STREET" How "Sing Street" isn't somewhere here is baffling to me.
=============================
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers

WHO WILL WIN: "La La Land"
WHO COULD WIN: "Fantastic Beasts" or "Arrival"
WHO SHOULD WIN: "Fantastic Beasts"
WHY NO NOMINATION?: Again, is there something against horror titles, because "The Witch" would be perfect for this.
=============================
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper

I always wildly guess in this category.
=============================
Ennemis Intérieurs
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode

I always wildly guess in this category.
=============================
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully

WHO WILL WIN: "Hacksaw Ridge"
WHO COULD WIN: "Deepwater Horizon" or "Arrival"
WHO SHOULD WIN: "Hacksaw Ridge" one of the few things I really liked from that movie.
WHY NO NOMINATION?: "Captain America: Civil War" or "Rogue One"
=============================
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

WHO WILL WIN: "La La Land"
WHO COULD WIN: "Arrival"
WHO SHOULD WIN: "Rogue One"
WHY NO NOMINATION?: "DEADPOOL"
=============================
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

WHO WILL WIN: "The Jungle Book"
WHO COULD WIN: "Kubo And The Two Strings" I do have a fool's hope for "Doctor Strange"
WHO SHOULD WIN: "Doctor Strange"
WHY NO NOMINATION?: "Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them"
=============================
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

WHO WILL WIN: "Moonlight"
WHO COULD WIN: "Hidden Figures"
WHO SHOULD WIN: "Arrival"
WHY NO NOMINATION?: Does "Captain America: Civil War" count? "Nocturnal Animals"
=============================
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women

WHO WILL WIN: "Manchester By The Sea"
WHO COULD WIN: "La La Land"
WHO SHOULD WIN: "The Lobster"
WHY NO NOMINATION?: "American Honey" or "Arrival"

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